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On 30 Mar 1995, Marc Perton wrote:

> Advertising Age (March 13) quoted Forrester Research as saying there are now
> about 2 million Web users, and by 1998 there will be 11.2 million. Don't know
> whether these numbers include Prodigy users, or those who will soon be able
> to connect via AOL and CIS (not to mention MSN). I've seen figures of 3-5
> million used elsewhere, which apparently include Prodigy.
> -------------------------------------------------------
> Marc Perton                         TEL: +852-2508-3326 
> Publisher,                          FAX: +852-2566-7021
> Asia, Inc. Online          URL: http://www.asia-inc.com
> mperton@asia-inc.com    URL: http://www.hk.net/~mperton

It's hard to track.  Due to the fact that the base software for the web
is not sold, but is downloaded and copied freely, with about a 10% 
registration rate, the market information is hard to track.  In addition,
the internet growth in a particular segment is about 20%/month, or doubles
every 4 months.  In January of 1993, there were 1 million internet e-mail
users, by December 1994, there were nearly 100 million addressable 
accounts (many were duplicates - I'm on AOL, Prodigy, dowjones, digex,
mcgraw-hill, and standardpoor or example).

In January 1994, there were 2 million real-time (slip, PPP, ISDN, 
frame-relay...) TCP/IP customers.  By January 1995, there were
16 million, partially thanks to innovations such as TIA, Pink-Slip,
PPP, On-ramp, and BBS operators who put up LINUX servers on their
former FIDO and WILDCAT servers.  Client software such as Trumpet and
WS-FTP made the internet almost friendly.  The CICA CD-ROM also helped.

There were 200,000 downloads/week of mosaic and other web browsers during
1994.  The current estimate is that there were about 6 million web browser
users on the net, and about 2 million netscape browsers.  The registration
rate is estimated at about 10% for the share-ware implementations.

Commercial implementations of the internet products are released when the
market hits about 16 million users.  At that time, corporate customers 
want commercially supported products.  Chameleon, Spry, and Frontier
were primarily commercially supported implementations of the CICA products.

Other interesting trends are the growth in the LINUX market (approaching
2 million units) which turns 386+ PCs into internet capable servers with 
built-in fire-walls.  When people want to put up their own home-pages,
the $25/quarter Linux price is eclipsed by the $45/page/month price of
web-pages.  Small businesses and BBS operators are finding that users are 
quite willing to spend $30-40/month for 400 hours/month.

Realtors and brokers of Cars, Apartments, and Dating Services (the staple
of classified advertizing) are finding that internetworking and Web
searching each other's databases can give them a much wider selection and
more commissions even when the commision is split.  With commissions of
$1000-$20,000 per transaction being handled at the rate of 20-40
transactions/day, the cost of a $2000 Linux server seems trivial.  The
main advantage of Linux is that it comes as an unlimited user system for a
software price of $70 (retail) with support in the form of quarterly or
monthly updates at $25/quarter.  Compare this to the $35,000 price tag of
an HP 9000 with 20 user license.  Even though these servers are on the 
internet, they are invisible to all but those hosts which have been 
permissioned.  The security facilities were contributed by banks and 
insurance companies.  DEC and SUN distribute this software as part
of their "Unsupported Software" distributions.  The unsupported software 
is better supported than the "company line".

There is also an upsurge in common carrier connections.  Sprint, MCI,
AT&T, Compuserve, and Tymnet all offer direct TCP/IP connectivity at
prices ranging from $300/month to $2000/month depending on initial
bandwidth and bandwidth commitment required.  The advantage of going
directly to the common carrier is that you get more security.  The
disadvantage is that you must provide your own UNIX or VMS host, router,
CSU/DSU (like a modem) and pay for the dedicated link to the local loop.
Direct TCP/IP is becoming a popular alternative to X.25 technology since
the Router can interface to the Telecommunications Company more
cost-effectively using frame-relay or ATM and the TCP/IP interface is
available via popular interfaces like ethernet.  For extra security and 
reliability, the router can balance the load between multiple carriers.

The Bottom Line of all this is that the internet is growing very rapidly 
and the level and quality of service is improving rapidly as well.  The 
value of the information is dependent on who's looking.  I can buy an 
airline ticket and the airline saves $50.00 per ticket.  I can buy a
theater ticket and the theater saves $10.00 per ticket.  I can rent an 
apartment in Manhattan and the Landlord and I save $1800.  Or, the
brokers in each of these cases can give me better service at lower cost 
to everyone.

Where on-line newspapers may want to plug in is by following the lead of 
the financial community.  The stock-broker or financial advisor pays the 
cost of the information with the understanding that the customer will 
trade through him when she trades.  It is in the broker's best interest 
to pump lots of information to the trader in the hopes of inspiring them 
to make more trades.  Lawyers look for class-action suits on the 
customer's behalf.  Accountants track tax code changes for their clients.
Because these "agents" are filtering the informtion, or assuring a 
constant flow, they can add little notes inviting them to take action.

Instead of the real-estate broker putting an ad in the NY Times, the
broker may pay the NY Times for the feed and pass the feed along with 
their advertizing to their customers.

A good example will be the travel agents.  The travel agents will want to 
offer packages which include air-fare, hotel, tours, and surface 
transit.  The agent can provide a composite web-page and can link to 
other travel agents.  The travel agent gives me the URL of his server and 
I can click the packages and tours that interest me.  He now spends less 
time answering the "how much and what time" questions and spends more 
time solving the "can you handle a group of 50?" issues.

	Rex Ballard.


From rballard@cnj.digex.net Wed Apr  5 20:46:36 1995
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