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On Tue, 11 Apr 1995, Don Taylor wrote:

> Rex, I just want to comment on one part. You are obviously a big fan of
> Unix, and I am *not* getting into any OS debate-war. But I'll bet any amount
> of money I can lay my hands on that no matter what happens to Windows-9x,
> barring some major catastrophe, Linux will not become #1 PC OS by end of 1996.
> 
> Don

Great, what kinds of odds will you give me.  I bet long-shots.  About 15 
years ago, I sent a nerdy looking kid the designs for a cute operating 
system.  He hasn't even sent a thank-you note.  His name was Bill Gates, 
and the system was what is now known as OS/2.  15 years ago, everybody 
was using CP/M and KNEW that PC-DOS would NEVER displace the CP/M market.

The only problem is that every BSEE graduated since 1980 has learned 
UNIX, the BSCS program was designed by Unix Hackers on the Internet.  
Every BSBA and MBA must learn to use Unix tools.  Up until about 5 years 
ago, you needed a College degree to use Unix, it was powerful, but it was 
not terribly Glitzy.  In 1990, X11R4 was released, giving Unix a Windows 
like interface with a variety of tools, utilities, and packages.  With 
IBM and Apple putting a "Mac-Like" front-end on AIX and AUX, the 
interface is simple enough for Executives, and powerful enough for MIS 
directors.

Because Unix library Source Code is available, Developement times, 
support, and user contributed (shareware/freeware) is widely available.

In 1982, IBM lost the Minicomputer Market to Unix on a PDP/11 and later 
the Vax 11/750 and 11/780.  In 1992, IBM lost the Mainframe market to 
Unix on Pyramid, Sequent, and Sun 6/400 machines.

Most of the copies of Windows 3.1 "sold" in 1995 were "Given away" by 
hardware vendors forced to "Bundle" Microsoft Software with their 
machines.  Meanwhile, Linux sells about 200,000 copies/month.

In 1982, I developed products for Novell, Microsoft, and Lotus.  Today,
I see the same "convergence of forces" that revolted against IBM 
throughout the 1980s.  This time, the object of their efforts is 
Microsoft.  Bill Gates has double-crossed IBM, Applications Vendors 
(Lotus, WordPerfect, Borland, DBase, Corel, Adobe, OS/2 vendors, 
Windows 3.x vendors, and WindowsNT vendors (WindowsNT3.5 trashed WindowsNT3.1
applications), Network Vendors, Hardware Vendors, Retail Distributors 
who had hoped to make a killing in Application sales and are now being 
killed by the "bundles", Retailers are also being bypassed for Windows NT 
and Windows 95 distribution.  And now Microsoft has thumbed their nose at 
the entire engineering talent of the internet with MSN.

IBM thought it could turn it's back on the ISA user/developer base, and 
lost it's credibility with MicroChannel.  Does Microsoft really believe 
that it can double-cross 30 million users without losing some sort of 
credibility?

Microsoft recognizes this threat as well, which is why they are offering 
Microsoft Foundation Classes for Unix.

Which of the 20 Linux vendors will publish the commercially popular 
"ultimate victor" of the Linux market?  I don't know.  It could be a 
19 year old kid with hair down to his waistline (The 90's version of a 
computer nerd).  Do you remember how old Bill Gates was when he put out 
Microsoft Basic?

	Rex Ballard

From rballard@cnj.digex.net Mon Apr 17 19:47:41 1995
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