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On Tue, 11 Apr 1995, Robert D. Seidman wrote:

>  
> >Bottom line costs to be a part of MSN will be around $400/year, probably 
> >in the form of Subscription fees, paid directly to Microsoft.
> 
> By the end user??
Of course, the rate may be around $40/month, or $20/month+$2/hour (ever 
tried to limit yourself to 40 hours on the Web?)

> >The primary purpose of MSN is to try to knock UNIX, the main staple for 
> This may be the main purpose of Exchange,  but I don't see how it is the
> main purpose of MSN.  MSN plans to compete with AOL, CompuServer, Prodigy,
> etc.  
Compared to the Internet, AOL, Compuserve, and Podigy are small 
potatoes.  The potential that is available through the efficient TCP/IP 
links, and Network to Network bridges (I can go from PSI(MCI) to Sprint 
through secured routers today), creates the possibility of several 
million real-time interactive users, Including AOLs Million, Compuserve's 
Million, Prodigy's 2 Million, and about 4 Million from "Supernets" like 
PSI, Alternet, SprintLink, AT&T, Colorado Supernet, BBN, Digex, and about 
50 "minor" subnets of 1000-2000 users.  Then there is what used to be the 
"FidoNet", about 2000 PCs, now converted to Linux, with 100-200 
subscription users each.

The predominant server for the internet is UNIX, largely because of the 
vast quantity of software available.  You can "get started" buy 
downloading httpd for "free".  You can upgrade to a "Money Machine" from 
NetScape for $25,000.  That wouldn't even buy the MVS on the old 3090s.

The availability of source is conforting to the administrator who gets a 
call at 3:00 AM that the server is down because someone tried to download 
"war and peace" into /dev/kmem.

Unix has always been rabid about allowing hardware access only from 
priviledged (kernal) code.  Unix doesn't let a downloaded application 
start mucking with the MMU registers and SCSI controller registers.

> >Linux will probably be the #2 operating system for PCs by the end of the 
> >year.  Unless Microsoft can get Windows-95 out in general availability 
> >(as "unsupported" if necessary) for under $60/copy, Linux will probably 
> >be the #1 operating system by the end of 1996.
> This is a mighty bold prediction, Rex.  But we'll know in a year and 
> a half.
If I'm right, Microsoft will be waiting.  They have released MFCs for 
Unix.  Linux is a "trivial" port. (See Dr. Dobbs)

> The infrastructure for MAIL on MSN is exchange, true.    
My understanding (not recent information) was that the infrastructure for 
all MSN services was Exchange/Mail - with "OLE-Forms".  That pretty much 
gives Microsoft a Monopoly on the servers.

> No, I'm saying to have all the features of MSN, you need to have Windows '95.
> Period.  (They're talking about a Mac client, but there will never be a
> Win 3.1 or DOS client, according to Russ Siegelman).  If they have a
> Windows-NT box on their end, that is transparent to me, as an end user, just
> as Prodigy,
To be a CLIENT, I only need Windows '96 (oops :-).
To be a SERVER, I need an NT with AT LEAST 32 Meg and Multi-user licences.
What is the price on NT/Unlimited User (I want the equivalent to a Web 
Server don't I?)?

> CompuServe and AOL mail servers are transparent to me.  I'm not sure, but
> I still think we're talking about different things.  But I'm waving the white
> flag as this is not really an "online-news" issue per se.

The proposal that Microsoft plans to establish a distribution and 
commercial Publishing Network, complete with electronic commerce, with 
all publishers, subscribers, advertisers, and resources paying 
royalties/commisions to Microsoft on an "Upgrade or die" basis, is very 
much an issue for online-news.

There are about 5000 publishers on this list who won't be particularly 
delighted to hear that Microsoft wants them to pay $25,000/year to be 
part of MSN.  Especially after they've spent as much as two years 
establishing Web Servers and paying $25,000 for the NetScape server, 
complete with Adobe Exchange (an extra $??,000).

The funny thing is that there are at least two financial services 
companies that are offering FREE httpd patches which make it possible to 
conduct financial transactions over httpd/Mosaic-et.al.

One of the other advantages of having source is that other users like 
banks, publishers, and subscribers become part of your support network.
Some of them might want a whole $1000 for their patents (Limpel/Ziv, 
RSA,...), and the source code is free.

> Thanks,
	Robert

	Rex Ballard




From rballard@cnj.digex.net Tue Apr 18 21:23:02 1995
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