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On Fri, 2 Jun 1995, Steve Outing wrote:

> On 6/2/95, Micha Reisel wrote:
> >what could be interesting though is asking:
> >
> >5. should we maintain a gopher site in addition to our website to attract
> >those who do not have webbrowsers but have a gopher client?
> >
> For the electronic publishing community, gopher is nearly extinct, IMO. I 
> don't see the point in supporting it once Web access hits all the major 
> online services (Real Soon Now). Anyone else with basic Internet access who 
> doesn't have a direct link or SLIP/PPP to use graphical Web browsers will be 
> able to use the text-only Lynx browser to access Web resources, so there's 
> really no need for gopher. 

Gee, I guess that because we now have these 8 lane highways, we won't need
those silly two lane roads.  Right?  This is the same logic.  There are
tons of pure gold in those gopher archives.  You can get at them via
the Web Server's CGI interface, if the server has had the Gopher 
interface "wired-in".  There are gigabytes of interesting information in
the "old fashioned" usenet news groups too.

Yes, there are those who don't want to have to dig, and don't like 
associating with those filthy miners, but if you want to "cash in",
you will find more gold in the gopher and FTP archives than you
would ever find in the "Pretty Packaged" web site.

Gopher sites provide a great mechanism for storing archives, creating 
searchable text (via archie, wais, and veronica), and providing fast
transfers of raw text.  You can "wrap it up" as you pull it from the
database using intermediate servers.

> It's amazing how fast things can change in this environment. In late 1993 the 
> Web was just beginning to get some notoriety and I thought gopher was great.  
> In late 1994 and early 1995, the Web has almost entirely eclipsed gopher. 
Many are counting on that Eclipse.  If people don't discover Linux, or 
Andrew, or the news archives of postings of people who contributed groups 
like comp.arch and comp.dcom to make the internet a reality, then companies
like Microsoft and Prodigy can charge us publishers 90% of the royalties we 
might earn.

> This might serve as a warning that the Web is not forever, either. Some 
> unimaginable new and improved thing could come along and knock the Web off its 
> pedestal.

Ever seen PEX (Phigs Extension to X11)?  Or VRML? or EZ? or MPEG viewers,
or multiple-display systems.  Imagine being surrounded by 3 21 inch screens
giving the illusion of an airplane cockpit.  Or having two screens in a
pair of "Goggles" which provide access to a 360 degree view based on the 
position of your head relative to two sonar detecters.  Running out of
"Desktop Space",  VR desktops can be several stories tall with several 
offices per floor, and you can "transport" or "scan" any grouping you like.

> (Perhaps gopher still has some life in the education network community? But 
> that's not really a topic for this list...)

Why not!  On-line publishing on the Internet isn't something you set in 
stone and forget.  You are always trying to keep one eye on where the 
technology is going at the "pleading edge", and one eye on how to best 
position yourself on the "Power Curve", that market that is emerging from
the 1 Million point in an exponential growth pattern of 10%/month or better.
That's what the 30 million will be doing next year.

In 1992 I predicted the radical growth of the e-mail market.  In 1993, I 
predicted the growth of the interactive (shell account) market.  In 1994, I
predicted the growth of the Web.  In early 1995, I predicted the 
commercialization of the internet.  I have also predicted radical increase
in the demand for high-reliability multi-tasking/multi-threading 
operating systems (Unix, Linux, Solaris (if Sun gets of their duff and 
gets real about prices), Univell (if Novell gives up their attachment to 
IPX as the default protocol and IP as the $400 ad-on), BSDI (if they get
real about their prices).   The "Killer app" will initially be the Web
Server.  As the power and security of Unix becomes evident, we will see
people discovering the power of UNIX and a few leaders will emerge.

We will also see the Unix/Linux market driven by response to the 
collusionary efforts of the "big 3" and Microsoft to try and wrest
commercial benefits through exclusive control of the internet commerce
protocols (SSL, SHTTP).

	Rex Ballard
	Standard & Poor's/McGraw-Hill
	Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect
	the Management of the McGraw-Hill Companies.



From rballard@cnj.digex.net Fri Jun  9 18:36:09 1995
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