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Edupage handed us the usual undefined red herring recently......"   only 
28% of Internet access is through ISPs....." and then cites "The Internet 
Index", without address or phone number.  Great!  28% of exactly what???  
Volume?  Addresses?  Domains? I am very skeptical of the superficial 
meaning of their assertion.  I imagine they mean the ISPs billable 
customers account for 28% of some total estimate (what? whose?), but without 
seeing the math, who knows.  

Moreover, an ISPs billable customers does not equal the number of 
participants coming into the net via that ISP.  For example, a local ISP 
of my acquaintance had roughly 5000 customers in March, but many of these 
were businesses that granted access to employees via the company LAN.  
The ISP counted these companies as a single customer even though they 
might offer services to scores of employees.  Does the 28% figure pick 
this up....or not?  I am not certain, but inclined to think not.  Take a 
look at the growth of .com domains in the past 12 months.  That growth is 
not coming via online service or educational institutions.  

What bothers me is that because the 28% number appeared in Edupage and is
succintly stated, ....and therefore is eminently quotable, and will
therefore appear without appropriate qualification all over the place as
if it were gospel.  This dynamic generates one heck of a noise. 

Personally, I think aol and CI$ are more attractive targets for RBOC 
acquisition than are most ISPs.  Some of the stronger regional ISPs may 
do well to merge with their brothers in a confederationof regional 
providers, to provide better scale economies, and improved services for 
travelers.  Some of the ISPs capable of growing out of the mom and pop 
garage stage will survive, as may some of the larger providers (PSI, 
Netcom, UUnet, BBN) if they maintain momentum, access to capital markets, 
and a will for independence.

Is there an ISP trade association?  Does anyone know?  I have not heard 
of one........hmmmm    Even though the ISPs have an excellent product, 
many elements of the market are unaware of them---their disaggregated 
state makes them poor in the marketing department...even though they have 
the "goods" as it were.  That is a solveable problem.....

On Sun, 2 Jul 1995, Don Taylor wrote:

> At 01:21 PM 7/2/95 +0500, sjvn@access.digex.net wrote:
> >
> >FWIW, I'm pulling for the small ISPs too. My personal feelings 
> >however isn't going to stop what my research tells me is a basic 
> >shift in how the Internet is delivered. Mind you some of the small 
> >ISPs you mention will survive -- as much bigger ISPs than they are 
> >today. BBN, which just signed an agreement to co-operate with AT&T 
> >in providing Internet services, seems to be on a course that will 
> >guarantee their survival for the next few years. 

Steven had replied to xerxes:
 
> >> And let's ask this question, too,.... would a Bell Atlantic prefer to
> >> acquire a BBN, or a CI$ or AOL ??  Or, if AT&T is having problems with
> >> Ichange, why not just buy out H&R Block's asset, and then match MSN's
> >> consumer price structure while joining AOL's suit against Mr. Bill?  Why
> >> go after 10-20 regional ISPs with high transaction costs for acquisition? 
> >> Hmmmm? 

Then Steven again:
 
> >I can't talk about Bell Atlantic, but as for AT&T, Interchange isn't 
> >part of the Internet provider equation. AT&T, as the recent BBN deal 
> >indicates, will be taking other paths to providing Internet services. 
> >I expect to see a more deals like this one, acquistions of regional 
> >ISPs, and, who knows, maybe CI$ or GEnie will end up in the hands of 
> >telecos. 

Now back to Doc Don :
 
> Steven may be close to right. The question I would expect is this: is it
> worthwhile to buy up the ISPs? Somewhere recently I saw a report (sorry,
> can't remember from too much infolution) that only 28% of Internet access is
> through ISPs. If correct, that would mean the bulk of the market is through
> the online services, BBSs and educational institutions (presuming they don't
> count as ISPs).
> Anyone else see this figure and have the cite? Personally I like to think
> the local providers will survive, but I'm not sure enough of it to invest my
> time and money in it yet.
> 

From owner-online-news@marketplace.com Thu Jul  6 13:19:09 1995
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